Due to the increase in direct electrification in the transport sector, all studies examined predict a significant decrease in final energy demand in transport – from just under 800 TWh in 2020 to about 320 TWh in 2050. Of this, between 25 and 100 TWh will be met by hydrogen and 85 to 150 TWh by synthetic fuels.
Synthetic fuels will be used primarily in aviation and shipping and to decarbonise existing fleet. The studies see the largest share of hydrogen use (60-80 percent) in heavy-duty transport. In bus transport, the use of hydrogen is also significant, but its share in the total energy consumption of the transport sector is very small.
The studies do not see any significant use of hydrogen in the passenger car sector. This also corresponds to statements from the automotive industry, which is focusing on direct electrification.